Road trip! (by EV)
In 1987 my wife (then girlfriend) and I had our first experience of North America through a road trip. We started in Calgary, drove across the Rockies to Vancouver, hopped to Seattle and then all the way down to Los Angeles. From there we cross the Mojave Desert to reach Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon, then back across the Sierras (somehow) to end up in San Francisco. Since that experience we have road tripped in Canada and the US frequently, and now that we reside in the US, it seems like once or twice a year. Road trips are embedded in American culture, both as a necessity for heavier transport, a convenient vacation, a way for folks who have to travel from place to place, be they road warrior business people, or performing artists.
In March of this year we sold both our aging higher end vehicles (a BMW 335i and Range Rover Sport, don’t ask!) and after some deliberation, bought a Tesla Model 3, the Performance version with twin motors and bigger battery. It has worked out perfectly as our vehicle for personal travel, 140 mile round trip commutes to Houston, and everything else. We have a higher end car that is a different motoring experience, saves a lot of money on gasoline, promises to be also very low on maintenance costs and is a fraction of CO2 emissions and zero on other tail pipe gases.
Our road trip route. (Source: personal car data on teslafi.com)
I wanted to visit southern Colorado and northern New Mexico to spend some more time in Santa Fe, as well as visit some sights we’d not seen before. So on September 17th we set out for a 10 day trip. We drove 2744 miles, at a fuel cost of $ 92.94, which is 76.8 mpge. I updated my electricity generation and emissions statistics from EIA and compared that to the performance information I captured from analysis in teslafi.com of data uploaded from our car. On average during the trip we used 0.271 kWh for every mile driven. That means that the Tesla delivers superior emissions performance compare to high efficiency ICE vehicles, even in states with highest emissions per kWh generated depicted in the map below. I described the daily EV learnings and some observations and comments about the energy transition on a daily post to LinkedIn labeled #greatamericanEVroadtrip. In this blog, I summarize the learnings both from the trip itself and the discussion points on the LinkedIn posts. I also make some suggestions on both improving the viability and enjoyment of the trip, but also on how to increase the uptake of EVs as a light vehicle for both commutes, road trips and every day mobility for Americans.
Average state-wide CO2 emitted (g/kWh) in electricity generation in 2016. Multiply by our average efficiency of 0.271 kWh/mile to get a emissions per mile for our Tesla. (Data source: EIA)
Learning points
The Tesla Model 3 is at the top of its class. Its technology, drive performance, efficiency and battery charge life and range were critical to making the trip relatively easy and fun. Its efficiency in converting electricity into miles travelled allows it to outperform with respect to high efficiency gasoline cars both in fuel cost (e.g. Toyota Corolla, 266 g CO2 per mile), no matter how dirty the electricity is in the grid.
Similarly, Tesla’s investment in the network of Superchargers, which can give you a full charge in 45 minutes, and often enough for the next leg in 20 minutes, puts Tesla cars way ahead of other EVs. That’s not to say that it can’t be done in a competitor model, but I have to believe it was be harder with more range anxiety attacks and so on.
The rapid growth of Tesla (and other) destination charging stations at hotels (kudos to Holiday Inn and Hilton) makes overnight stops a welcome recharge for both the vehicle and its occupants.
We only once got close to the wire on charge levels (less than 20 miles) as we arrived at our destination. Hence there is an additional planning requirement for the EV, but the Tesla app and two third party apps make this relatively easy, particularly with a little practice. Even the “Lubbock Gap” can be crossed!
We had as many stops (something to do with age?!) in our EV as we would have has with our predecessor gasoline car, and the stops were about 10 to 15 minutes longer than they might have been with a gasoline car. I don’t regard that as a bad thing, giving the driver a chance to rest, stretch the legs, and catch up on email.
Similarly, to manage charge levels to the range projected by the software, speed limits have to be complied with. Again, no bad thing, and it actually quickly taught me to enjoy the ride and be more watchful for the other idiots on the road, instead of the black & white vehicles on the verge.
While the American culture is pre-disposed to gasoline and diesel, we also have experienced a good deal of interest, curiosity and enthusiasm. Complete strangers approach us to talk about the car and the experience, and were willing to listen carefully to the answers we gave about their preconceptions. (Incidentally, we had the preconceptions too!).
Improvement opportunities for the road trip
Charging station network, of course. It appears that this remains one of the main obstacles for consumers considering an EV purchase. With a home charging station, 220 volt, 48 amp, we have zero problem with using our Tesla as a personal and commute vehicle. Moreover on the road trip, as summarized above, we had little problem. We did notice a couple of gaps in the Supercharger Network in West Texas - Lubbock and Abilene stand out as big population centers with one.
Charging station network, again. While the uptake of destination chargers by hotel chains like IHG (Holiday Inn) and the Hilton Group is laudable, there remains a huge opportunity for gasoline stations, restaurants and other retail locations to install chargers. Just this morning I saw an article on McDonalds now seeing the opportunity.
Charging station network, once more. Most of the Superchargers, located in shopping mall parking lots, or beside hotels and other retail stores, feel safe and secure. Nevertheless, we did have an experience like something out of Breaking Bad, when we watched two vehicles meet in an otherwise deserted lot in Santa Fe, NM.
The Product Adoption Curve from Innovation Diffusion Theory. Source: crazy egg.com.
The tipping point for EVs
EV sales in 2018 in the US were only 1.96% of total new car sales, but the 2018 number was 63% more than the 2017 number, so appears to be growing an exponential rate. According to the Diffusion of Innovation Theory, any new product needs a market share of between 15 to 18%, with the “Early Majority” beginning to adopt the product, for the tipping point to be achieved. For EVs, here are some simple differentiators that will increase adoption and market share.
Cost. James Carter recently nailed this in a post in LinkedIn. “Compared to an Audi A4, BMW 3 series and Mercedes C Class, [the Tesla Model 3 has] a big cost of ownership advantage, [but] compared to budget cars, there's still a big gap.”
Charging network and availability. Recent studies still show that potential buyers worry about home place of work charging solutions for commuting and drives to schools and shops, let alone road tripping. Part of this is an experience and education thing, but we shouldn’t ignore the technological and investment challenges to improving electricity grids, power supply and integration with other architectural and city planning aspects.
Durability and maintenance. One “leap of faith” I and making as an “Early Adopter” is that our car will have a reasonable resale value when we decide to trade it in. In one way this is factored into “Cost of Ownership”, but to me it’s worth explicitly mentioning the risk I perceive that the battery will degrade significantly more quickly than the rest of the car.
SUVs and Light Trucks. Texans, and many Americans like their trucks! Despite being more expensive to run than saloons, trucks and SUVs new very popular. For many in more rural communities it’s a really a pragmatic issue - we still have a diesel F250 for our farm. A progression into EVs that can carry and haul bigger payloads seems to me to be an important progression. Rivian and Tesla are working on light truck models
However, there’s a more profound aspect of the Diffusion of Innovation Theory that’s all to do with our psychology than it is to do with pragmatic aspects listed above. It’s been really interesting for me in the last few months to notice yet again how influence and control works in human society. Change, for example the energy transition, is much more to do with beliefs, values and culture than it is to do with technology. Many things we do, buy or follow, we do because we respect, admire or like the people who are doing it already or say it’s the right thing to do or believe. The explanation by Simon Senek of this very human condition remains one of the best I’ve seen. I agree that people respond more to the Why? of a product than the How? or the What? So it is with Tesla and their mission to “accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.” As I described in Energy Firm of the Future, we need more companies in the energy and transport sectors adopting or adapting their missions to meet the multi-challenges of increasing energy and mobility demand of society and yet drastically reduce the carbon intensity. I like and admire how for example how BP, my employer for 25 years, has adapted its mission on energy provision to include the lower carbon future.
“Our people want to play their part in solving the big complex challenges facing our world today – including the transition to low carbon – and, guided by our BP values, are working to help meet the world’s need for more energy while lowering carbon emissions”
With more companies repurposing their what and how to a new why, so there will be more innovation, efficiency and improvement. EVs will become more affordable and more convenient. Business opportunities will emerge to improve deliver recharging options, to increase battery life and to integrate with building technologies, and so on. Why would you not want a car that is cheaper, better, more fun and reduces your personal carbon and other emissions footprint, and is more sustainable for your children’s future? Only laggards or people with personal interests substantially different from the “Innovators” will say no.