Road trip! (by EV) , 2020 version
Frontispiece: Wind farms in north Texas. A recent two week EV road trip through seven states to the Rocky Mountains and back illustrates both the opportunity of mobility electrification, and the associated and enormous challenges. Seeing (diesel) trucks hauling individual blades of wind turbines along the I40 freeway in Texas illustrates the real necessity for oil (and natural gas) to be part of the energy transition. While the cost and emissions savings of our Tesla Model 3 make consummate sense in our kitchen table economics, there are technological and especially cultural mountains to climb to transform mobility in America. The further greening of electricity, particularly to 80% let alone 100% is also an enormous challenge, particularly if low cost and reliability are to be maintained. I believe America’s energy systems need to be transformed, but pragmatic and considered solutions are required, including embracing the role of oil and gas. I review the electricity generation profile of Texas as an illustration of the role of natural gas and hence at scale and cost-effective CCS if emissions targets are to be achieved and include a plug for research into geothermal as the Rocky Mountain and West Coast states have the highest geothermal gradients in the country.
Last year we bought a Tesla Model 3 as our main vehicle for personal use and commuting. In September 2019 we completed our first #greatamericanevroadtrip and I reported some insights in this blog. Having spent most of the year so far restricted to home in Texas, we decided to take a road trip to the Rockies. We enjoyed time hiking, horseback riding, and sightseeing and visited 7 states including Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Utah.
Figure 1: Our road trip route. (Source: personal car data on teslafi.com, nut sure when the Moab, Utah to Santa Rosa, New Mexico wasn’t properly captured)
During our 14 day trip, we drove 4,277 miles, at an electricity cost of $142.37, which is 64 mpge (assuming an average regular gasoline price of $2.24 per gallon). With respect to CO2 emissions, our average efficiency of 0.266 kW/mile means that even in the state with the dirtiest electricity, Wyoming, we are emitting less CO2 per mile than a fuel-efficient car like a Toyota Corolla (266 g CO2 per mile). In this blog, I update the learnings from last year’s trip and refresh my commentary on how the electrification (and decarbonization) of mobility can be accelerated). I also have included some comments about the opportunities that the states we traveled through have to further “green” their electricity while maintaining affordability and reliability.
Figure 2: Average state-wide CO2 emitted (g/kWh) in electricity generation in 2018. Multiply by our average efficiency of 0.266 kWh/mile to get emissions per mile for our Tesla. (Data source: EIA)
Learning points
The Tesla Model 3 is at the top of its class and looks to continue there for some years to come. Its technology, drive performance, efficiency, and battery charge life and range were critical to making the trip relatively easy and fun. Its efficiency in converting electricity into miles traveled allows it to outperform with respect to high-efficiency gasoline cars both in fuel cost (e.g. Toyota Corolla, 266 g CO2 per mile), no matter how dirty the electricity is in the grid.
Similarly, Tesla’s continued investment in the network of Superchargers, which can give you a full charge in 45 minutes, and often enough for the next leg in 20 minutes, puts Tesla cars way ahead of other EVs. That’s not to say that it can’t be done in a competitor model, but I have to believe it would be harder with more range anxiety attacks and so on.
The rapid growth of Tesla (and other) destination charging stations at hotels (kudos to Holiday Inn and Hilton) makes overnight stops a welcome recharge for both the vehicle and its occupants and the location of some superchargers next to grocery stores, like the Jackson Whole Grocer in Jackson, WY, is very welcome.
We had only one incident of inconvenience. We drove to the Seedskadee National Wildlife Refuge from Rock Springs, but found when we got there we needed to return to the Rock Springs supercharger to “juice up” for the next drive to Jackson. Seedskadee is a fantastic place and well worth the detour, but how about installing EV chargers in national and state parks and monuments?
We had as many stops (something to do with age?!) in our EV as we would have has with our predecessor gasoline car, and the stops were about 10 to 15 minutes longer than they might have been with a gasoline car. I still don’t regard that as a bad thing, giving the driver a chance to rest, stretch the legs, and catch up on email. On the other hand, my wife found the additional total travel time on the long travel days tiresome.
Travel time, efficiency and range monitoring make me aware of how speeding doesn’t significantly impact travel time. Sticking to speed limits not only improves safety and unwelcome attention from black and white vehicles on the side of the road but improves range and therefore reduces the number of charging stops.
While the American culture is pre-disposed to gasoline and diesel, this year we again received some enthusiastic inquiries from fellow motorists. Complete strangers approached us to talk about the car and the experience and were willing to listen carefully to the answers we gave about their preconceptions. There was one wag who approached us to educate us that his hybrid was a much better long-distance vehicle. We tried to explain that range wasn’t an issue, and forgot to explain that we hadn’t been keen to replace our old BMW 3 series with a Toyota Prius.
Figure 3: The Product Adoption Curve from Innovation Diffusion Theory. Source: crazy egg.com.
The tipping point for EVs
New EV sales in the US actually declined from 2018 to 2019 and McKinsey offered a number of reasons why this had occurred.
While Tesla’s Model 3 continued to sell well, overall the brand’s US sales declined by 7%. The Chevy Volt was discontinued and sales of Honda Clarity also declined. Successful launches of the Audi e-tron and Hyundai Kona and increasing sales of VW’s e-Golf could not offset the fall in Tesla, Chevy, and Honda. The market needs a greater range of models to improve consumer choice.
Loosening of federal standards on fuel efficiency and therefore emissions of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles including the reduction of the 2026 target from 54 mpg to 40 mpg.
Recent low prices of oil and therefore gasoline and diesel can swing the math on cost of ownership of vehicles in favor of ICE cars.
Figure 4: Partisan division on climate change and the economy. (Source: Pew Research Center).
These technical factors certainly do not help EVs get anywhere close to the “tipping point” on the Product Adoption Curve illustrated in Figure 3 and need to be addressed for greater EV adoption. I was reminded during the road trip of the profound cultural challenges that also need to be addressd. America’s car culture has been in place for more than four generations. It sometimes feels to me that the desire to own and drive a car, truck, or any other kind of vehicle is so part of American society and lifestyle almost feels like a "right” and that it could even be an amendment in the constitution! Even if the product adoption factors outlined above change for the better, there a significant minority of American people who remain unmotivated by environmental factors to reduce their own carbon footprint. These attitudes correlate with political leaning, and hence inevitably are being emphasized by both the competitors in the US presidential election. Sadly, along with other aspects of managing the energy transition and managing climate change risks, EVs are fast becoming a political or ideological matter.
Decarbonizing the Electricity Grid
Figure 5: CO2 emissions intensity in electricity generation by year for the seven road trip states. (Source: Data: EIA; Graphic: Capriole Energy).
Figure 6: Texas electricity generation by fuel type and overall emissions intensity (Data: EIA; Graphic: Capriole Energy).
As Figure 2 illustrates, Texas and many of the mountain states have relatively dirty electricity with higher emissions intensity. Idaho is the exception, with a relatively small amount of in-state generation through conventional hydroelectric. Of the seven states in which we charged our car, Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado are arguably leading in reducing emissions intensity (Figure 5).
VP Joe Biden has made the objective of 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035 one of the key targets of his energy policy. While I welcome the general direction of Biden’s policy, I do think there are some practical realities that will need to be embraced if and when he elected. One of these is the role of oil and natural gas in the transition which is starkly illustrated for gas when one considers its role in electricity generation (Figure 6). For example, taking Texas alone illustrates how natural gas has met the continually increasing demand for electricity in the state, holding coal broadly flat, and therefore decreasing emissions intensity. There is clearly a huge opportunity for variable renewables wind and solar to further penetrate the grid and if coupled with efficiency measures, holding future demand flat, these renewable sources can be the substitute for retiring coal plants.
Absent a breakthrough in either storage and/or clean but dispatchable electricity from nuclear or geothermal for example, the need for natural gas thermal electricity appears likely to dominate for at least the next fifteen years if not for the next few decades. That was illustrated in the 2012 NREL Renewable Electricity Futures Study which concluded that 80% generation from renewables in 2050 was entirely feasible, but noted the many challenges associated with the transmission, variability, market changes, and so on. Natural gas is predicted by the study to be still in the mix by 2050. If that is so, the need for at-scale and cost-effective carbon capture and sequestration of CO2 in power generation plant flues becomes critically important, if 100% clean targets are to be achieved.
Figure 7: Temperature at 6 km depth illustrating how the Rocky Mountain and West Coast states are endowed with the richest geothermal resources in the USA. (Source: Blackwell et al. 2006).
Video 1: I am not arguing for the contruction of geothermal plants in Yellowstone National Park, but Wyoming is endowed with prospective geothermal resources for electricity generation and heating!
Again Biden’s energy policy, including a center for technology researched and development is directionally right, in my view. While the at-scale deployment of available technology can deliver much progress in clean, cheap, and reliable electricity generation, we need further solutions and research into storage, and alternative sources such as nuclear fission, hydrogen and geothermal.
Endpiece: The author in Grand Tetons National Park. America has a wonderful national environmental heritage. Even where we have already modified it beyond return, we need to do a much better job of maintaining (or improving) our environment for future generations. The challenge is multi-faceted and can only be met if we make decisions, particularly about energy and other natural resources, that are more sustainable, benefiting the world today, but not at the expense of tomorrow.